Crystal ball gazing for 2026

 Happy New Year

to all readers of 

3rd Level New Zealand 

 

May 2026 be a good year for you 

and all those you love

For the last time I sit in my non-airline industry armchair I once again turn my mind to the crystal ball and gaze into what might happen to our regional airlines in the year ahead. 

The domestic airline industry continues to  struggle... Overall, I think 2026 will be another year of changes...

In March Air New Zealand will start an interline arrangement with Air Chathams on flights between Whakatāne and Auckland. I'm assuming this will be the first of a number of interline arrangements with Air Chathams. This in turn could lead to Air New Zealand relinquishing Timaru, Hokitika, Taupō and Whangarei. Watch for developments in this sphere. 

Air New Zealand's direct Hamilton-Christchurch Airbus flights will increase to a daily service this year. With Jetstar becoming more reliable and competitive, and certainly cheaper, Air New Zealand will need to respond to maintain market share. So perhaps cheaper fares and frequency increase on main trunk services. That said, I don't expect to see any new domestic routes this year.

Air Chathams fleet of two ATR 72s, four passenger configured Saab 340s and one Saab freighter is perhaps not the best fit for their needs. The Saab is about the right size for their mainland domestic services certainly while the ATR is too big. The ATR has passenger appeal for the Chatham Islanders and Tauck Tours but it is not as versatile aircraft as the Convair was on the Chathams run in terms of freight and combi operations. I read somewhere that the Air Chathams ATRs are the lowest use ATRS in the world.  

The regional airlines had some Government assistance last year. With that in mind I would suggest to look for a fleet rationalisation focussed on Saabs. With the new interline arrangement with Air New Zealand look for Whakatāne  getting a schedule more suitable for business customers. If another Saab was in the offering this could be the year for Masterton. 

The interline arrangement also holds possibilities of picking up Air New Zealand services to Timaru, Hokitika, Taupō and Whangarei. 

Air Napier's Senecas have not flown for some months. It sounds as if they might have lost the contract for regular medical flights between Napier and Wairoa. Will the courier service between Napier and Gisborne be enough to keep the airline viable with a Piper Navajo and Gippsland Airvan? 

Last year Barrier Air leased a couple of Caravans to Fiordland operators which must have helped Barrier Air's bottom line during Great Barrier Island's quiet winter season. Over recent years Barrier Air has developed its service to Kaitaia and a new service to Kerikeri. Whitianga and Tauranga, like Great Barrier Island, remain seasonal. While Barrier Air is a stable well managed airline I think consolidation rather than expansion in the uncertain economic conditions. 

As last year, Golden Bay Air continues its niche service supporting the Golden Bay and Heaphy Track traffic. They have never indicated any desire to expand beyond Golden Bay. Nonetheless, as I wrote last year, perhaps Golden Bay Air should be thinking what would be a suitable aircraft to use between Wellington and Westport? 

Same as last year... Island Aviation continues to link the Barrier from North Shore and Waiheke Island. They fly when traffic is offering and picking up scenic and charter flying as they need. My prediction for 2025, no change.

Jetstar is the rising star on main trunk routes. Again I had to travel at short notice and again Air New Zealand's fares were horrendous... Jetstar's were reasonable. Both Jetstar flights were on time and I was amazed how quickly they turned the Airbus around. Air New Zealand increasingly seems to be running late. Talking to other flyers, they are making similar observations.

They showed they are willing to expand also introducing direct Airbus flights between Hamilton and Christchurch. My prediction, no major changes but again a ramping up on frequency as more and more people are becoming disillusioned with the national carrier.

Merlin Labs continues to do their research and development work picking up domestic freight flights as they can. No major change.

Originair pulled Taupō and Hamilton flights this year. The Westport service which started last January has dropped to four flights a week. Look for Westport to go. Meanwhile the Blenheim-Christchurch service is growing with frequency improvements from February along with flights between Nelson and Christchurch. Look for these to grow.  

Airwork continued to retrench in 2025 and has had financial woes but continues to operate. The Parcelair consortium and service is solid but also suspectable to take over if it is not reliable.  No change.

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2025 saw a major retrenchment for Sounds Air having dropped Taupō, Westport, Christchurch and Wānaka  relinquished their Pilatus PC12 fleet. The airline will now focus on Cook Strait services. Sounds Air will survive but as they recover financial stability consolidation will be the key word. Look possibly for another Caravan. 

Exactly the same as last year... Stewart Island Flights is another niche operator, with its focus on the air service to Oban and supporting trampers by landing on Stewart Island's western beaches. I have always felt Queenstown-Stewart Island would be a good fit but not operated by Islanders. In saying that the BN Islander is ideal for the Stewart Island service to Oban's Ryans Creek airfield as well as the beach landings on the Stewart Island's western beaches but the time must surely be coming when they will need to look at Caravans.

In the meantime, my prediction for 2025, no changes.

Sunair is back from the dead. The grounding saw them lose the Whangārei-Kaitaia medical flights. Meanwhile the Aztecs have not got any younger or garnered more appeal. Inter-regional flying still has possibilities. An opportunity exists for Hamilton-Palmerston North and Wellington-Taupō services. Sunair could look at both but not with Aztecs!

Texel continues to be more focussed on Australian air freight services. New competition has arrived trans-Tasman. Texel will be looking for opportunities. A continued "watch this space."

3rd Level New Zealand

At the start of this post I wrote, For the last time I sit in my non-airline industry armchair I once again turn my mind to the crystal ball and gaze into what might happen to our regional airlines in the year ahead.

For over 15 years the blog has been a bit of a labour of love but I am finding it increasingly difficult to maintain. A big part of this is time, but a few other things have happened that are making it too difficult... 

• The Air New Zealand sim carpark at Auckland has been closed so its not possible to get out and get decent photos close up of our airliners. 
• It's also more difficult to get information... a lot of news now is behind paywalls. 
• It's no longer possible to search the CAA aircraft register for new aircraft, changes of ownership and cancellations 
• It is difficult to try and obtain photos in a timely manner.

Sadly, the time has come when I need to pull back from my commitment to the blog and trying to keep it up to date with domestic airline news.   

I will try and keep up to date information the background for my own records and I will occasionally publish or update a post on an airline's history. I have a few posts like this already prepared and they will be post on the second Sunday of the month as has been my practice from the early days of the blog. The reality, is, however, over 2026 the blog will gradually wind down.

If any one is interested in picking up the blog I'm happy to hear from you.

In the meantime, I hope you have enjoyed the blog and its content over the years. Thanks to all those who have sent information, photos and encouragement. I have enjoyed doing it and meeting some amazing people along the way.

Cheers

Steve, westland831@gmail.com