Thinking about Hamilton

This on Stuff on my local airport...

Hamilton Airport's passenger numbers are soaring, reversing the previous trend of passenger decline with growing Auckland congestion playing a part. The regional airport is experiencing the strongest year-on-year growth in any given month in the last four to five years. March had the highest monthly passenger numbers recorded within the last four years at 3200 flying from the airport. CEO Mark Morgan said the bottleneck over the Bombays was among the reasons for the increased passenger numbers. "Getting to Auckland Airport from the Waikato is problematic. In terms of the Southern Motorway, you can leave at 5am for an 8am flight and it is questionable if you will arrive on time. "Business people are reconsidering. Historically they may have driven to Auckland to catch a flight to Wellington or Christchurch but, because of the unpredictable traffic half of their business day could be spent on the road." Morgan believes the airport is also benefiting from a more positive economy, both regionally and nationally. "I think there's an increase in tourism and we've seen some benefits from that. We've seen an increase in tour group activity in and out of Hamilton Airport." There was year-on-year growth from July 2016 to March 2017  of 8 per cent on Air New Zealand services to Palmerston North, Wellington and Christchurch. In March 2017 compared to last year there was 20 per cent growth on the same routes for Air New Zealand. Some recent research by the airport has found that its profile is almost equal between business and leisure traveller. "Our view, before our research, would have been that we were more heavily weighted towards business travellers than leisure. "It will certainly change the way we market the airport." Hamilton Airport has flights to all the main business centres apart from Auckland after Air New Zealand withdrew that service just over a year ago. Given the problematic accessibility to and from Auckland, Morgan is keen to see this service reinstated at some point. "Twelve months ago passengers may not have considered flying from Hamilton to Auckland because it was considered driveable, but now the drive could take anywhere between two to three hours so the Hamilton to Auckland flight would have greater appeal. "We will continue to advocate with Air New Zealand to increase frequency and scheduling. I think the airport is in a much, much stronger position than it was two or three years ago. "We remain very focused on the regional airport strategy, but I think the challenges Auckland faces, with regards to traffic and infrastructure, will create a lot of future opportunity for Hamilton Airport." Hamilton stopped being an international airport in 2012 and  it has very clear direction from the shareholders and the board that  its focus is as a strong regional airport. So there is no consideration to attempting to woo back international services for the time being. Morgan wants the airport to be more than a place people fly from but also a destination, where people use the venue for conferences or parent groups who can use the cafe Mavis Lounge.

Source : http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91437455/hamilton-airport-welcomes-increased-passenger-numbers

So my thoughts...

1. "March had the highest monthly passenger numbers recorded within the last four years at 3200 flying from the airport." 

I don't think so... 

Given in May there are 24 direct ATR flights to Christchurch each week... that's 1584 seats per week!

Given in May there are 33 direct ATR flights and 6 direct Q300 flights to Wellington each week... that's 2478 seats per week

Given in May there are 10 direct Q300 flights to Palmerston North each week... that's 500 seats per week

Note... It looks as if Q300 flights out of Hamilton have recently been replaced by ATRs so that's a higher number of seats...

If its 3200 people flying out of Hamilton per month it would be a load factor of 15%

I'd say 3200 flying out of Hamilton each week in March makes more sense! That would give a 70% load factor but my observation are Hamilton flights are always fairly full

2. Morgan said the bottleneck over the Bombays was among the reasons for the increased passenger numbers. "Getting to Auckland Airport from the Waikato is problematic. In terms of the Southern Motorway, you can leave at 5am for an 8am flight and it is questionable if you will arrive on time. "Business people are reconsidering. Historically they may have driven to Auckland to catch a flight to Wellington or Christchurch but, because of the unpredictable traffic half of their business day could be spent on the road."

Personally I don't think so... Sure, some people were flying via Auckland when Eagle Air were operating Hamilton-Auckland... in fact the Eagle flights were often full as people connected to and from both domestic and international flights. The domestics would largely be southbound and those passengers now would take the flights straight out of Hamilton. But I would argue Waikato people have not been driving to Auckland to catch a domestic flight for some time...  

3. Given the problematic accessibility to and from Auckland, Morgan is keen to see this service reinstated at some point. "Twelve months ago passengers may not have considered flying from Hamilton to Auckland because it was considered driveable, but now the drive could take anywhere between two to three hours so the Hamilton to Auckland flight would have greater appeal.

Barrier Air tried and failed... I think they needed to enter the market immediately after Eagle stopped... They didn't, and when they did enter the market they didn't advertise well. People need to know there is a service... People need to be reminded of the of how hideous getting to and from Auckland Airport is, especially in the morning and later afternoon and evening. People need to be convinced the service is reliable! People need to be convinced it is worth changing airline at Auckland - no interline. 

Interesting Air Chathams did AKL-HLZ on Thursday with a Metroliner pre Cyclone Cook. Sat around at HLZ for over an hour and then flew back to AKL. One wonders if they were checking out HLZ and HLZ Airport were checking out Air Chats!

4. I think the airport is in a much, much stronger position than it was two or three years ago. "We remain very focused on the regional airport strategy, but I think the challenges Auckland faces, with regards to traffic and infrastructure, will create a lot of future opportunity for Hamilton Airport."

I agree. Hamilton City grew by 20,000 people in the last three years! The market is growing every day. If Jetstar remain in the regional market I suspect they will come to Hamilton at some point... after all it is now NZ's 4th largest city and that will increase the number of passengers!

5. Hamilton stopped being an international airport in 2012 and  it has very clear direction from the shareholders and the board that  its focus is as a strong regional airport. So there is no consideration to attempting to woo back international services for the time being. 

Hamilton being an International will make sense only when the road access to Auckland is poor.