15 August 2017

What's the word?



There are a couple of big rumours flying around at the moment in the NZ airline scene which if they come to pass will certainly give me something to blog about...

I just had a look at my crystal ball gazing back on 1 January...


It's interesting to see what has happened so far this year and look forward to the last four months of the year.

31 comments:

  1. Re WRE: Honestly, I don't see Air NZ pulling out of WRE. Loadings are often at or very near full capacity. A new optimised timetable for WRE comes into effect in early October, bringing back an overnighting Q300, and 2 morning departures, a morning arrival, a miday arr and dep, a mid evening arr and dep, and an evening arrival. I do however see them pulling out of KKE. I don't think loadings on the AKL/KKE route are as expected when it went all Q300 instead of a Q3, 1900D mix. I think this is why the terminal upgrade has been put on hold, due to commence earlier this year, now set for next year. Fares have increased in KKE from $69 to a few $75 fares but mostly $85-$125 fares.

    Rumor has it that 3 Q400's are joining JQ but mixed messages about this from JQ staff. SBW however is supposed to come back later on in the year wearing JQ livery. Presumably a new destination or route to be announced, as Rotorua has appeared on their website and schedules for their current routes changed considerably. JQ, from late October, will no longer overnight in the regions. NPL and PMR go to 2 and 3 daily respectively. NSN/WLG switches between 2 and 3 daily during the week, as well as NSN/AKL switching between 3 and 4 daily during the week. Napier remains steady with 4 daily.

    Air NZ will ultimately have to replace the ageing Q300's. My pick is with AT42's to have a streamlined 42, 72 fleet with either the 42's operated by Air Nelson or Air Nelson meeting the same fate as Eagle Airways, and all turboprops operated by Mt Cook. I don't see them replacing all turboprop op's with AT72's as a few regions somewhat struggle with Q3 loadings.

    Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth. Can't wait to see what the remainder of 2017, and 2018 have in store for the NZ aviation scene. Change is happening.

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    1. I was reading in the Australian Aviation which they had an article dated 21 Jun 17, that ATR is finalising plans to launch a variant of its ATR 42-600 twin turboprop with “improved” short takeoff and landing performance. The new variant, dubbed ATR 42-600S, could takeoff with a full passenger load from runways as short as 800 metres.

      I wonder if Air NZ is looking at the ATR42 like what Nathan has said and what I have been saying for the last 12 months as a replacement for Q300's for Air Nelson since Air NZ will be 3rd largest operator of the ATR72's once the remain 13 ATR72-600's are delivered?

      Another thought, wonder if Air Chathams is looking at the ATR42-600S?

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    2. If the ATR42-600S is happening, it would be even better for airports like WRE. The current ATR42 can take off and land with only 40-50m to spare which would most likely mean the demise of WRE services if a new airport isn't built. This -600S sounds great.

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    3. Nathan - have a read - http://australianaviation.com.au/2017/06/atr-plans-improved-field-performance-atr-42-600/

      I wonder if ATR is having talks with Air NZ?

      It would make economic sense for the ATR42-600 especially the -600S to replace the Q300's as this would standardised on spares, maintenance and flight and cabin crew training consider Air NZ's current policy to reduce costs by having 1 aircraft type to suit market type, like the A320's for domestic and short haul international services, the B789's for medium to long haul international 'Point 2 Point' services and the B777's for high capacity for medium to long haul international services.

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    4. I have also heard that TRG is being seriously considered by JQ. Rumour also has it that JQ are looking to add a ROT-CHC-ZQN service in the near future using Q400's.

      Interesting times. I wonder what NZ have up their sleeve..

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    5. I agree that AKL/TRG is most likely new route for JQ.

      I wouldn't like to fly ROT/CHC/ZQN in an Q300. They are not the most comfortable of aircraft. A flight in an Q300 up to 1 hour in enough for me.

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    6. If the ROT/CHC/ZQN route was entered by JQ then it would be on Q400's in my opinion. TRG/AKL could be added with a Q300's.

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    7. You could be right. Depending on the seating config on Qantaslink Q400, they would be compatible to the ATR72's Air NZ is using. I believe that the Q400 is a bit faster than than the ATR72's.

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    8. The Q400 is about 25% faster than the ATR72 and the QF Link config is 74 seats, 6 more than the ATR.

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    9. There is currently 27 ATR 72, including 10 500 series. Predominantly 500s operate from AKL as that is a 500 only tech crew base.
      MCA has been withdrawn.
      The fleet total will be 29 72-600 series once the orders are fulfilled and all 500s have exited.

      Will be quite a process to exit old 500s, swap for 600s, add a few more additional 600s, convert tech crews over to the new plane and grow its WLG base before even looking at the profitable and proven Nelson business.

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    10. They aren't getting 42's.

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    11. This is about the talking about what could replace the Q300's.

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    12. I would have thought it's pretty obvious.

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  2. Three Q400s have been pulled from Qantaslink service and look to be getting read to cross the ditch. This would definitely help if JQ wanted to tap into the ZQN-CHC-ROT loop. Apart from TRG, can't see JQ doing anything else.

    Air NZ will ditch the Q300s gradually and with that, some lesser provincial routes. The blood letting isn't over yet.

    Sounds Air, tempted by growing numbers, may bring a J32 on the CHC route, but logic says use Orignair's plane.

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    1. And this is where the rumour falls over. No Q400s have been withdrawn from Qantaslink service and to my knowledge are fully allocated to the Australian schedule.

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    2. To ALEC JC No evidence to support this so just a rumour only. All the Dash 8s in Australia are fully utilized ecept for one being painted. QantasLink is increasing its Dash 8 operations with the return to Kingscote from both MEL and ADL in December. So not likely to happen at this stage unless they cut some services.

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  3. It would be a huge surprise if Kerikeri is chopped.
    I use the service a few times a month, and the loads are up there. It was also confirmed to me by someone close to the operation that load factors are north of 80%.
    If I had to put a bob each way, other than the expanded services recently announced, I reckon it'll be steady as she goes.

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    1. This concurs with what I have observed and heard... KKE is getting additional flights and from what I have heard is growing

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    2. Yes an extra flight 3 days a week over summer to cater to tourism capacity. I heard thats why the terminal upgrade was put on hold as Air NZ are paying half and passenger numbers aren't providing enough for that to be viable to Air New Zealand, and hence the fare increase.

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    3. Bay of Islands Airport reported 88,000 passengers through it last year and an estimated 20% growth this year, and growth expected to continue.

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    4. The town of Kerikeri is growing at a rapid rate with the Auckland affect. It may not happen for a while, but hopefully the seasonal increase will become permanent.

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  4. What about HLZ-WLG on JQ? Has anyone heard anything about JQ entering HLZ?

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  5. Still surprised no one is trying to compete with Air NZ on NSN/CHC, whether it be Sounds Air, Origin or JQ.

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    1. The Air NZ service is frequent, often ATRs, many cheap fares. Passenger interest in any of the operators you suggest would be minimal. JQ can't get much interest in its (poorly timed) Wellington flights on most days, even with fares at $29. It is unclear why JQ continues with that route, which seems to have begun as part of an effort to show that regionally JQ would fly somewhere other than Auckland.

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    2. Agreed, Air NZ has been operating upto 10 returns a day on NSN-WLG for a number of years. Even well before JQ showed up. Currently all Q300 but ATR has also been trialled from time to time.

      Speaking of, Mount Cook makes a return to TRG with the summer schedule. Flying a morning WLG-TRG-WLG run. Ending ATR services on WLG-NPL-WLG as a result,

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    3. Come late October they have released a far better schedule for there NSN/WLG route. The flights are more evenly spread. The NSN/WLG is a highly competitive route so you do wonder why they still operate the route.

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    4. This means that Q300's will be used WLG-NPL-WLG when the ATR's are withdrawn for the summer period?

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    5. Correct. The current single WLG-NPL-WLG which currently flies WLG-TRG-WLG will do a straight swap. Effectively moving 18 seats each way between the two routes

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  6. Are there PR statements about the new regional timetables or is it a matter of comparing old and new timetables... If it is good news for a region you think they would do a press release... its free advertising!

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  7. JQ have major problems crewing the Q300s

    Look to them cutting back to trunk only, if they can retain the jet staff.

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