Crystal Ball Gazing for 2019

Happy New Year

May 2019 be a great year for you 

and those you love.

Safe Flying 

and 

Fruitful Plane Spotting.

It's that time of of year again... time to speculate on the year ahead and what it might bring on the domestic air service scene...

So looking at the big players...

Last year Paraparaumu was unexpectedly dropped from the Air New Zealand network. The political outcry was intensive... I certainly think Air New Zealand wants to drop its smaller ports. While I think we will see more regional cuts I would suggest it won't be until inter-line agreements, not just inter-line baggage agreements are sorted out... They won't want the political fall out. So my read, no changes this year until behind the things are sorted out... but watch this space and keep an ear to the ground.

A big issue at present is the motorway access in and out of Auckland. It is horrendous at present but the improvements are expected to open in 2020. So while Auckland-Tauranga has been predicted for the last couple of years I wonder if that will ever happen especially with the road improvements on the way. So my read, no changes this year.

The Rising Stars...

Air Chathams has been taking a considered attitude to its growth... 2018 saw Kapiti Coast added. 2019 will see an international service to Norfolk Island added. One step at a time. There are big rumours about Air Chathams in regards to ATR 72s and Boeing 737s. Look for some action in regards to a new type. Last year I predicted maybe Saabs on Auckland-Whakatane once the RESA improvements were completed at Whakatane... the RESAs are underway so I think the Saab will be seen into Whakatane on peak services in 2019. Despite Kapiti Coast losing one of its three weekday flights (Air New Zealand went from 3 to 2 as well) I would expect Air Chathams to continue to grow the market. My pick for Air Chathams is a consolidation year, developing it charter ops and preparing itself for future Air NZ cuts.

Last year I wrote "I really thought Barrier Air was getting a second Caravan towards the end of 2017." In 2018 they got a second and third! They have restarted North Shore flights and Kaitaia is steadily building and the airline has added a lot of additional capacity to Great Barrier. Barrier Air has some really dynamic leadership and has really transformed itself. So watch this space. It is an airline that is looking at initiatives and thinking carefully before it starts something new. Barrier Air is another airline looking ready and waiting to pounce on any opportunity that offers itself.

Sounds Air had a quiet 2018 until the addition of corporate jet charter work. This will surely expand. On the airline front Sounds Air increased their frequency on the Blenheim-Wellington flights. With the demise of air2there Sounds Air might look to offer more services between the Kapiti Coast and both Blenheim and Nelson. A key question is how they would promote these services! For example how many people in the Kapiti Coast know Sounds Air fly there? I really wonder what future Originair has and therefore Nelson-Palmerston North and Nelson-New Plymouth might be possible routes for Sounds Air. I also think Blenheim-Palmerston North might work. With  the limitation of the size of their Pilatus and Caravan fleet I can't see Sounds Air picking up any Air NZ routes. Watch this space.

Air Napier is a rather unexpected addition to the rising stars, It is here purely because Air Napier has a new owner who has signalled development. Whether the Senecas and Navajo are the aircraft to do it with remains to be seen. But Napier-Hamilton, Napier-Tauranga, Napier-New Plymouth and Napier-Gisboren could all be possibilities with something like a PC12. Fares are the critical factor. Watch this space.

The Steady as She Goes Brigade

Contrary to my prediction last year Fly My Sky started a new route, Auckland-Whangarei. My prediction, is that Auckland-Whangarei quitely goes and they remain focussed on Great Barrier Island. With Barrier Air on the rise they may well need to look at re-equipping to keep up with the competition.

Sunair got airborne again but it hasn't been doing a lot of flying. Part of this issue is there are boxes to tick the more bases you have. My guess is 2019 will see the reintroduction of the East Coast service with flights connecting Gisborne, Tauranga, Rotorua and Napier.

The arrival of Golden Bay Air's Airvan at the end of 2018 was a real surprise. It seems to be developing Nelson to Takaka services for Heaphy Track customers. With wider use of bikes allowed on the Heaphy this can only increase the number of passengers. They seem to happy with ZIG and ZAG for the Wellington run but I wonder if something a bit bigger would be useful?

Again, steady as she goes. There two Islanders are perfect for what they are used for but one wonders when they will reach end of life?

Uncertain future

 Originair are once again in the midst of issues with operators not being able to provide their services. Three additional operators maintained their flights for some weeks but then there flights just stopped.  Even though their Facebook page advertised flights over the peak Christmas season no flights operated. Flights are available from the 18th of January but then Christmas flights suddenly disappeared from their system. Unless they can maintain consistency of service they have an uncertain future.