15 August 2015

So where will Jetstar fly regionally???



My pick for Jetstar's four regional centres are...

  1. Nelson
  2. Palmerston North
  3. Napier
  4. Hamilton
Do you agree or would you put Rotorua, Tauranga, New Plymouth or Invercargill into the mix??? 


Jetstar released this media release earlier in the week

Survey finds overwhelming support for new Jetstar regional flights

  • Nearly 95% of regional flyers say Jetstar’s planned new services are a good idea
  • Two out of three travellers believe current regional flights don’t offer value for money
  • 68% of regional flyers have driven to another city to catch a domestic flight to save money

A nationwide survey on Jetstar’s planned regional flights has found overwhelming support for the new services with 89% of travellers saying they’re a good idea, rising to 94% in the regions. Jetstar commissioned the independent research following its June announcement that it would begin regional services later this year to four destinations. Those under consideration are Hamilton, Rotorua, Tauranga, Napier, New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Nelson and Invercargill. The online survey was completed by 900 travellers in July. Respondents were evenly split between those living in regional and main centres. All had taken at least one regional domestic flight in the past year. Cheaper fares, more competition and more choice were cited as the key reasons travellers supported Jetstar’s regional expansion. A number of those surveyed said that Jetstar regional services would benefit local economies, with one respondent noting it could even make regional commuting more viable: “As more people are priced out of Auckland they may choose to commute from regions if transport infrastructure is there.” The survey found that around two out of three travellers (63%) thought the regional flights they had taken in the past 12 months did not represent value for money. This feeling was higher in the regions (67%) than in metropolitan centres (60%). Nearly all travellers believed Jetstar’s entry into regional markets would boost passenger numbers, with 95% agreeing that more people would fly into the regions if cheaper fares were available. 87% of all respondents said they personally would consider flying regionally more often if fares were cheaper. The survey also asked people living outside Jetstar’s current markets of Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Otago if they had ever driven to another city to catch a domestic flight because of the cost of regional services. Of the more than 400 regional flyers surveyed, 68% said they had made a road trip to save money before taking to the air domestically. Grant Kerr, Head of Jetstar New Zealand, said the survey results were highly encouraging and echoed the sentiments expressed on regional visits in June and July. “We’ve had a very positive response to our June announcement and the feedback we’ve received on our regional visits has been equally supportive,” Mr Kerr said. “The results of the survey show that travellers outside the main centres want competition, choice, and low fares. And I’m sure they don’t want to have to drive to another city just to be able to catch an affordable domestic flight.” Mr Kerr said the airline remained on track to announce the new regional routes in a few weeks. 

29 comments:

  1. Tauranga has not been under consideration for Jetstar at this time. I must be the 5%! Thinking perhaps Invercargill might pip it over Napier, but could be wrong...

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  2. I would go with:
    1. Nelson
    2. Palmerston North
    3. Invercargill
    4. Napier

    Hamilton and Rotorua might be too close to Auckland for them and New Plymouth doesn't have as many flights as the other destinations so I doubt they would pick that as a first place.

    Maybe they're all joking with us and they're bringing 10 DH3's over and doing all the above destinations?? :D

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    1. New Plymouth has way more flights than Invercargill and Napier

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    2. Wrong. Napier gets more flights per day over New Plymouth

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  3. I think it will be Invercargill, New Plymouth, Rotorua and Napier.

    Rotorua is a tourism destination, would feed into Qantas, Jetstar and Emirates international services out of Auckland based on a AKL/ROT/AKL and or AKL/ROT/WLG sectors.

    With regards to Invercargill, it would be CHC/IVC/CHC sectors feeding into Qantas, Jetstar and Emirates international services out of Christchurch, plus Invercargill has the Southland region population catchment.

    Napier is has a twin city population (Napier/Hastings) catchment plus Hawkes Bay is a tourism region. A AKL/NPE/WLG would feed into Qantas, Jetstar and Emirates international services out of Auckland and Qantas and JeJetstar international services out Wellington.

    New Plymouth has a large population catchment, so you will have WLG/NPL/AKL routing, feed into Qantas, Jetstar and Emirates international services out of Auckland and Qantas and Jetstar international services out of Wellington.

    So if you look at the national route structure, it would by IVC/CHC/NPL/AKL, IVC/CHC/WLG/NPE/AKL and IVC/CHC/WLG/ROT/AKL.

    CHC, WLG and AKL would be hubs for regional services, with CHC and AKL as crew/aircraft bases.

    The whole of idea of a Jetstar regional services is to feed into the Qantas, Emirates and Jetstart international services.

    CHC/ZQN/CHC and CHC/DUD/CHC and possibility AKL/PMR/AKL would be on cards sometime next year.

    Nelson is becoming a bit crowded, with Originair and Kiwi Regional Airlines flying in and out.

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  4. In my oppinion the destinations will be: Nelson, Palmerston North, Napier, and New Plymouth.

    The initial base will be Auckland. Air New Zealand already offers a large number of flights to these destinations from Auckland.

    Hamilton and Rotorua are too close to Auckland giving the car the edge. Invercargil is already well served by Jetstar as there are plenty of cheap flights from the adjacent airports of Dunedin and Queenstown.

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  5. Napier, Palmerston North, Nelson and Invercargill

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  6. Nelson should be one, purely as a maintenance requirement. I'm sure they will be charged plenty for such a service.
    In my opinion, the ports Jetstar serve, will be those whose councils are willing to fork out the rate payers money to subsidise their operation. If this proves to be the case, and Air New Zealand go for anti-competitive behaviour, Jetstars props will be gone from the scene very quickly. Why else would they do a region wide roadshow?
    Turboprops are expensive to operate, and its something the fine folk of regional New Zealand will never understand. The recent unveil of KRAs prices proves that. They are far from bus fares, which is what the people want.
    I live in a regional town, and its the opportunity cost of doing so.

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    1. Rambo is totally correct.

      But we need to keep in mind JQ is part of the Qantas Group which is atleast twice the size of Air NZ Group.

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  7. ^^^^^ Very well said indeed. I live in a small town, near Whakatane. I fly for work on a very regular basis. Granted it is sometimes far cheaper to drive to Tauranga or Rotorua to take advantage of cheap fares, but I am trying to support local, and fly Air Chathams as much as possible. They are not the cheapest, BUT, they have set fairly realistic pricing on their flights, and even still some of the Metro flights are sold out. I know then, Air Chathams will be flying into Whakatane for a long time to come. I know if i want the convenience of flying out of a airport, 20mins from home, I will pay a slight premium for that privilege. And i am happy to do so. I think the general public have it in their minds that Jetstar will come to the rescue, and bring super cheap fares to Regional NZ. The reality is that it probably will not be the case. Turboprop operations as said before do not come cheap. Also mentioned before was Kiwi Regionals prices, which are actually on the higher side of what i thought they might be. I think Air NZ have done well to keep ticket prices down in the face of a recession, high fuel prices ect. Flying regionally in NZ is actually cheaper than some countries ive been too.

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    1. Even if all 50 seats on the JQ Q3 were $100 that's $5,000 revenue. It would still loose money on anything over an hour.
      But of course rate payers will be subsiding landing fees in many of the ports, infact those with the biggest discounts will of course be the initial destinations we will hear about in the next few weeks.

      The above poster is correct, regional flying in Australia and the UK for example is very expensive, far higher than here in most cases on comparable sector lengths and comparable aircraft types. It's tall poppy syndrome and ignorance coming from some people. They all want bus ticket prices to fly on 20 million aircraft into some of the most challenging regional ports around.

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  8. Has it being confirmed where they are getting their maintenance done???

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  9. I think Palmerston North is a definite, because it has many different factors that make it attractive; a council actively promoting new routes from their airport, a terminal large enough to handle them, about an hour flight-time from both AKL and CHC and thousands of uni students.

    Nelson is also very likely based on it being the busiest regional airport and also being an ideal distance from AKL and CHC, although the large number of airlines already serving it might make it unattractive.

    Beyond these two it's hard to tell, although I think Tauranga can be ruled out as one of the initial four because it wasn't on the list they announced. I also think Invercargill is unlikely because of its location and the fact that the deep south is already served by DUD and ZQN.

    My guess for the final two depends on what sort of network they are planning to operate; will they only serve these from a single hub (ie:Auckland), or will they offer multiple destinations from each city. If they are only intending to fly from the regional destinations to AKL, then Napier and New Plymouth would be the obvious choices, but Hamilton and Rotorua are more likely otherwise. Rotorua has money it is willing to spend on attracting and promoting new services and it should be able to draw significant tourist feed from international flights. Hamilton's attractiveness benefits from being a uni city and its large population base.

    So, I'd guess either NSN, PMN, HLZ and ROT to AKL, CHC and maybe WLG and ZQN, or NSN, PMN, NPL and NPE just to AKL. I also wouldn't be surprised to see CHC-ZQN, CHC-DUD and WLG-ZQN.

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  10. Interesting that Tauranga appears on the Jetstar press release... Have TRG being making overtures...

    My thoughts are

    AKL-NSN-CHC
    AKL-NPE-WLG-HLZ
    AKL-PMR-CHC

    The flights aren't necessarily going to be business flights

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    1. NPE-WLG and WLG-HLZ can be quite hit and miss with numbers quite markedly fluctuating.
      Not uncommon to see less than two dozen on a WLG - NPE.

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    2. I was on a Q300 scheduled flight once, early morning with just 3 other passengers. Blows the whole myth of cancelling flight due to low loadings!

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    3. Record low for me was 3 pax PMR-AKL. RE NPE-WLG-NPE, in all the years I operated it, loads were generally pretty good. WLG-HLZ on the other hand...

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    4. PMR - CHC can be pretty poor! Thinking back I remember being the only passenger on a flight to Napier

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  11. Jetstar will have two core objectives - capture passengers travelling beyond their first destination (especially overseas) and lift the competitive pressure on Air NZ which is beating it within NZ and adding to the pressure on Qantas/Jetstar in Australia. It has no hope of making any significant money on the provincial routes so will be heavily influenced by whatever concessions it can wring from airports and local councils. It has five spare Dash aircraft which it can bring in without much new investment. Few business passengers fly it. It will want provincial timetables to align to A320 flights - but will it sell through tickets? In principle it will target those provincial areas with large population bases (over 100,000 in the catchment), but will also need to assemble viable routes and access maintenance - not necessarily at Nelson. Palmerston North or Blenheim might work with some initiatives. Waikato/Bay of Plenty has four airports very close together, all desperate to lift usage (especially the wildly oversize terminals at Hamilton and Rotorua) and all are unprofitable. The provincial areas with population are Waikato/BOP; Hawkes Bay; Manawatu/Whanganui; Dunedin (which doesn't think it is provincial!) and Nelson/Tasman (just). The destination options are the existing Jetstar airports (5) but Queenstown will be left to A320s, even domestically. Taranaki is too small and too weak an economy - Stratford and South Taranaki councils have had nil population growth between censuses, New Plymouth just 5000. So in summary my pick is the provincial centres are Napier, Hamilton (unless out incentivised by Rotorua or Tauranga), Palmerston North, and either Dunedin or Nelson.

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  12. The Jetstar Q300 operation will be successful in my opinion for these reasons:
    1. Jetstar has far less overheads than the likes of KRA or Orginair. There is no additional cost for the aircraft, IT, marketing, or administration.
    2. Air New Zealand operates 23 Q300s in New Zealand. They have been very profitable and kept ANZ profitable during a time when the international operation was loosing money.
    3. Grant Kerr was the head of Air Nelson and will have a good idea of a successful Q300 operation. He will have knowledge of the regional markets and operating costs of the Q300.

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  13. Good start with what they have stated and once they are established there will be plenty of time for expansion and making the new zealand domestic market affordable to the masses

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  14. Even though Jetstar didn't put TGA on first round they are still under consideration. Even though TGA pax is not as high as most of the other regional airports, it has grown the fastest and now handles more pax than Rotorua and Hamilton. IMO If jetstar are here for the long term, they should consider destinations that have strong growth prospects and I think TGA would be great idea for them. The city has the strongest economic growth in the country and the population is going through the roof. Why serve a declining population of Invercargill with limited growth options into the future.

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  15. And how on earth will the terminal and ramp at TRG handle Air NZ and Jetstar! I have worked at TRG and it is already bursting at the seems at times. Bad enough with the three morning departures and also Sunday afternoon. Not to mention more ATR 72s coming and going.

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  16. Typical TGA city council building infrastructure half ass haha. But I do think if they miss out in the first round jetstar should consider them at a point (maybe after a terminal expansion ??) Jetstar are about facilitating growth in regional markets and both TGA, HLZ and NSN offer the best growth opportunities into the future. With the aircraft being based in AKL, maybe they could fly down to TGA in-between schedules? I do think that NSN and palmy are definitely going to be in the first announcement, will be interesting what regions are the last two??

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  17. I suspect knowing where the maintenance will be done will be key in determining where the Q300s will fly. Whatever happens the four aircraft will have to be able to get to base as part of their schedules

    I also suspect flying to Auckland will be the main focus, more so than Wellington and Christchurch.

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    1. I would put money on Nelson and Palmy on the first round. But really, they will probably go to everywhere on that list and some, just not right away with only 5 planes. I very very much doubt it will stop a 5, they want to grow and 5 simply isn't worth the effort.
      I've heard where the maint is to be done and its not the obvious... But is on that initial list...

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    2. The only reason for 5 is that they were spare in Aussie and parked up. It would have to prove to be a profitable operation prior to any more capital was invested. The ROI would have to be in the 10 to 15% range to justify any new expenditure as the return for using the aircraft in Aussie would be much higher if the economy rebounds in the mining sector.

      The Aussie Dash 8 300's are quite old (Air NZ bought the last ones made) and I would have a guess that the ones deployed in NZ will be the oldest ones in the QF stable.

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  18. If you go to the Jetstar website and click low fares from Wellington, Nelson pops up for $45... well that's the first destination sorted. Rock on IVC, NPE and PMR.

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